Numerical simulation and risk calculation on storm surge of Ningbo
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摘要: 基于已有潮位站的台风风暴潮历史资料,利用业务化台风风暴潮数值预报模式对影响宁波的5次较显著台风风暴潮过程进行模拟检验,分析表明模式能较好的模拟台风风暴潮过程,尤其是对最大过程增水的模拟。因此,以镇海潮位站为切入点,选用引发宁波最大风暴增水的5612号热带气旋(Wanda)的路径,平移后组合不同等级的热带气旋参数,构建出多组假想最优热带气旋进行宁波地区风暴潮风险的计算,得到从强热带风暴至超级台风共5类热带气旋登陆宁波时所可能引发的最大风暴增水,并使用皮尔逊Ⅲ型统计计算出对应的历史重现期,为宁波地区今后有效地防范各类热带气旋强度的风暴潮提供决策支持。Abstract: Based on the typhoon storm surge historical data of tide gauge stations, analyzing the simulation capabilities of the five remarkable typhoon storm surges by using the operational typhoon storm surge numerical model, results show that the model had well performance in simulating the storm surges which influenced the Ningbo region, especially for the peak surge. Therefore, taken the Zhenhai tide gauge station as the breakthrough point, used the tropical cyclone No.5612 (Wanda) which caused the biggest storm surge of Ningbo, shifted and then combined the different intensity level of tropical cyclones to build multiple hypothetical optimal tropical cyclones for the risk calculation of Ningbo region, to gain the probable maximum storm surge of five category that covered from the strong tropical storm to the super typhoon; moreover, the corresponding return period by using Pearson-Ⅲ distribution method was also carried out, the aim of the work is to provide the decision support for the effectively prevent various tropical cyclone storm surge in the future.
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Key words:
- storm surge /
- numerical simulation /
- Ningbo region /
- risk calculation
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